I wrote a post on 11-17-12 as to what I think AAPL will do. Ultimately, you need to respond to price action. But a lot of people have picked up on inverted H&S now and feel in the near future we will bounce. Usually negative = up. And on the day I enter long I want to see AAPL red, the media/analysts telling everyone AAPL is done, and down 20 or points. BUY THE FEAR! (a trade for at least a couple of days anyway). A perfect entry would be around 460-475ish area - red line (lower trendline connecting multiple points on a monthly chart)
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