12-16-12 AAPL

I wrote a post on 11-17-12 as to what I think AAPL will do.  Ultimately, you need to respond to price action.  But a lot of people have picked up on inverted H&S now and feel in the near future we will bounce.  Usually negative = up.  And on the day I enter long I want to see AAPL red, the media/analysts telling everyone AAPL is done, and down 20 or points.  BUY THE FEAR! (a trade for at least a couple of days anyway).  A perfect entry would be around 460-475ish area - red line (lower trendline connecting multiple points on a monthly chart)

12-16-12 Banks

Banks  look ok here (STT, BAC, JPM)

Inverted head and shoulder on wkly with consolidation on last 3 weeks.  On the down week there was buying.  Index (XLF) could possibly see 18ish.

CRM textbook setup

                                                          1. Monthly channel

    

 

2. 2wks tight pattern

                                                       3. Breakout on huge volume

12-4-12

  
long small.  stop 155.  If market improves looks good for higher prices

11-27-12

  Everything from ACAD down were scalps.  At the moment CASH.

11-26-12

   sold more of AAPL - not much left.

also have FXI at 36.58 which I forgot to post I think

On the watchlist:

ABC

AWK

SSYS

WX

GNRC

CHS

DKS

FCFS

FNGN

SRPT

DISH

WMT

FDO

SHF (VERY THIN)

TRGP

VSI

SXC (IF ENERGY/METALS GO - GREAT LOOKING CHART)
SUP
ASNA
CSGP
ILMN
MED
NDSN
TFM
ASGN
VRX
CYT
CRM

11-19-12

      Reduced pos by half in early am run, waited for some consolidation re-entered, sold almost half of pos and sold remainder of half at end.  Still have 40% of original pos from Friday.  Looking for a little more, may see another gap at which time I will sell the rest.

Pretty much neutral on OB/OS conditions.

11-17-12

NOT A RECOMMENDATION. FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

Feeling a bounce opportunity in Apple (AAPL). The stock started an uptrend in Feb 2009 and recently has seen selling by the big boys starting in September 2012.  Overall the the trend is still in tact from the lower red trend line.

Ideally, I would like to see the stock around 465 (lower trend line) before entering, but took a position on Friday.  If it doesn't work out I don't care.  It is all about risk and reward.
The overall market is extremely oversold and this leader has gotten hit hard as evidenced above with 8 weeks of selling.  At some point the shorts have to cover producing buy orders (profit taking) allowing the stock to go higher.  Typically when we are extremely oversold we get at least two days of buying in the general market.  We saw one day on Friday.  See what happened last time it touched support (white line) in May/June 2012.  Apple had some buying on Friday with 60% more volume.  Is this the start of something? See below (last green bar).

Taken into account:
1. Extremely oversold conditions (market and this stock)
2. Apple at prior support (white line)
3. Shorts covering and volume from Friday
4. Possible X-mas rally

Seems like a good SHORT TERM buy.

If this stock does rally I see it possibly going to 600 (roughly the 200 day moving average - red line) to roughly the third green arrow (above).  With that said, we possibly have a head and shoulder formation on the stock (green arrows), which could produce a measured move to 350ish over the next couple of months assuming AAPL has no new inventions - sorry to all the bullish investors. This level was a prior support/resist area  in the middle of 2011.

At the end of the day this is my opinion.  It is very possible I am wrong which is why I'll be watching the price and volume action.  Start looking for the next wave of leaders.  Happy Trading.

11-16-12

        First two transactions daytrades.

11-13-12

Getting extremely oversold, expecting bounce soon

11-8-12

Dear Funds,  Please bring more red. Thx

Not in extreme oversold territory - waiting

11-7-12

11-6-12

11-5-12

11-2-12

11-1-12

   Unfortunately stopped on WMT, but collected some dividends.
Will most likely be stopped on AAPL tomorrow.