Ideally, I would like to see the stock around 465 (lower trend line) before entering, but took a position on Friday. If it doesn't work out I don't care. It is all about risk and reward.
The overall market is extremely oversold and this leader has gotten hit hard as evidenced above with 8 weeks of selling. At some point the shorts have to cover producing buy orders (profit taking) allowing the stock to go higher. Typically when we are extremely oversold we get at least two days of buying in the general market. We saw one day on Friday. See what happened last time it touched support (white line) in May/June 2012. Apple had some buying on Friday with 60% more volume. Is this the start of something? See below (last green bar).
Taken into account:
1. Extremely oversold conditions (market and this stock)
2. Apple at prior support (white line)
3. Shorts covering and volume from Friday
4. Possible X-mas rally
At the end of the day this is my opinion. It is very possible I am wrong which is why I'll be watching the price and volume action. Start looking for the next wave of leaders. Happy Trading.